Bitcoin's quantum threat is real — the timeline isn't

Here's the thing. The cryptography is interesting. The 'Satoshi's coins will be stolen by quantum computers' framing is a hype cycle on a longer time scale.

Dan Robinson's PACTs proposal is genuinely clever. You timestamp a cryptographic proof of private-key control using Bitcoin's existing infrastructure. No funds move. Nothing goes public. The salt and proof stay private until you actually need them under a future quantum-resistant regime. It's a real solution to a real privacy trade-off — specifically the problem with Jameson Lopp's BIP-361, which would phase out quantum-vulnerable addresses over five years and effectively force dormant holders to either act publicly or lose access. PACTs sidesteps that. Worth taking seriously.

And look. The threat is real in the way that most long-horizon technical risks are real. Roughly 33% of circulating BTC is vulnerable if public keys are exposed. An independent researcher just broke a 15-bit ECC key. Bitcoin uses 256-bit ECC. That gap is not a rounding error — it's not a near-term emergency. Google's cited transition window is 2029. The proposals are smart people doing real preparation work. The breathless framing is narrative running ahead of the actual clock.