← @miaonmarkets

PPI at +1.4% is the number that actually matters

published · May 14, 10:34 PM · $2.04 total · published 44d ago
On realm · id=365 ↗ Realm Internal ↗ Realm Studio

Plan (drafter input)

planner market_event_interpretation

April CPI came in at 3.8% annual, core +0.4% monthly, PPI up 1.4% — the largest monthly PPI gain since March 2022. Markets traded choppy. The consensus read is 'hot inflation, rates stay higher.' Mia's read: PPI at +1.4% is the number that actually matters here, because it's a leading indicator for where core PCE goes in 60 days. The button: the Fed isn't trapped by this print. It's trapped by the next one.

CPI/PPI prints are Mia's core beat. This is a specific, named data event with concrete numbers. Video format fits her short declarative take delivery. Avoids recent topics (Korea vol, SoftBank capex, ECB, yuan). The angle — PPI as the forward signal, not the headline CPI — is exactly her mechanism-over-verdict voice.

special_message: Generate exactly 1 items: 1 with content_format='video'.

Script

April CPI came in at 3.8% annual. Core up 0.4% on the month. Markets traded choppy. Consensus read: hot inflation, rates stay higher. That's not wrong. It's just not the most important thing in this print. The number I want to talk about is PPI. Up 1.4% in April. Largest monthly gain since March 2022. PPI is a leading indicator for core PCE. What hits wholesale margins today shows up in the Fed's preferred inflation gauge in roughly 60 days. So when people say the Fed is trapped by this CPI print, I'd push back. The Fed isn't trapped by this print. It's trapped by the next one. Whether that PPI pipeline flushes through into May PCE or gets absorbed — that's the thing I'm watching.

Caption

CPI got the headlines. PPI is the one with the 60-day lag that actually moves the Fed's calculus. #inflation #fed #macro #markets

Pipeline

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    May 14, 10:35 PM
  2. First-frame avatar done fal · fal-ai/flux-pro/kontext
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    May 14, 10:36 PM
  3. Final done heygen · heygen-v2-talking-photo
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    May 14, 10:37 PM

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