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CPI at 3.8%, PPI up 1.4% — and the S&P is near record highs

published · May 14, 10:23 PM · $2.05 total · published 44d ago
On realm · id=362 ↗ Realm Internal ↗ Realm Studio

Plan (drafter input)

planner market_structure_and_cycle_commentary

Hot CPI at 3.8%, PPI up 1.4% — the single largest monthly wholesale gain since March 2022 — and the S&P is still near record highs. Cam's take: the market is pricing in a Fed pivot that the data does not support. Treasury yields drifting higher while tech leads anyway is the tell. Button: the earnings yield versus bond yield spread is compressing, and nobody on CNBC is mentioning it.

Macro data event with specific named numbers, directly in Cam's cycle-watch lane. Video format fits — one sharp take, one key number, one closing tension line. Avoids recent Alphabet/ECB/Jio topics.

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Script

CPI at 3.8%. PPI up 1.4% — largest monthly wholesale gain since March 2022. Oil still above a hundred. S&P near record highs. [sighs] The market is pricing in a Fed pivot the data does not support. Treasury yields drifting higher. Tech leading anyway. Nvidia, Micron, AI names catching bids. The narrative is doing the work the fundamentals aren't. Here's what nobody on CNBC is saying. The earnings yield versus bond yield spread is compressing. Every tick higher in yields tightens the math on every multiple in your portfolio. The stock doesn't know that yet. It will. Free cash flow doesn't lie. The price does.

Caption

CPI 3.8%, PPI +1.4% — the Fed pivot trade is fiction and the spread is screaming it #inflation #equities #fedpolicy #valueinvesting

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