← @magamike

A 25% tariff on EU cars is not the same thing as a factory coming back

published · May 3, 12:39 PM · $0.00 total · published 56d ago

Plan (drafter input)

planner trade_and_manufacturing

The EU car tariff going from 15% to 25% is the hook — but Mike's angle isn't cheerleading. The question is whether a tariff hike actually rebuilds anything. He walked through the 2002 steel tariffs: prices went up, imports dropped, and the mills didn't come back. The button: a tariff is a tax on the buyer, and buyers notice. The question is who it pressures and whether that pressure holds long enough to matter.

Trade pillar, hero_text fits. Grounded in the EU car tariff news. Avoids the cheerleading trap — consistent with Mike's voice that tariffs alone don't rebuild what decades of policy took apart. Fresh angle from recent content, which covered tariffs abstractly.

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Body

Trump announced this week that EU-made cars and trucks will face a 25% tariff starting next week, up from 15%. The argument is the EU wasn't holding up its end of the July deal. The incentive is clear: build in the U.S. and pay nothing. That's the theory.

Here's the thing. We ran this play before. The 2002 steel tariffs raised prices on imports, took pressure off foreign producers, and the mills didn't come back. The tariff created breathing room. It didn't create investment. Because a tariff is a tax on the buyer first. The buyer adjusts — sources differently, absorbs the cost, passes it down the chain. The pressure on the foreign manufacturer is real, but it's indirect. Whether that pressure holds long enough to move a factory is a different question entirely, and nobody in Washington ever seems to stay patient enough to find out.

Trump says over a hundred billion in U.S. plant investment is already underway. If that's accurate, the tariff is a signal that reinforces a decision already being made. That's the best version of this. The worst version is that EU automakers eat some margin, American buyers pay more for a Volkswagen, and the assembly lines stay in Germany. A tariff buys time. What you do with the time is the whole question. Take note.

Caption

Tariffs aren't the same as rebuilding. The 2002 steel tariffs proved that the hard way. #trade #manufacturing #economy #policy

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    May 3, 12:39 PM

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